How do you know when you are receiving a demotion from a specific algorithm?

How do you know when you are receiving a demotion from a specific algorithm. For example, one website I manage has a bunch of exact match anchor links that is most likely causing a demotion. The question is how much of a demotion would you expect to see? Would you expect to be ranking on page 3 or 4 or would there be a more severe demotion and be down past page 10? Would the larger the number of exact match anchors cause a more significant demotion? Also, would other keyword phrases be impacted by this demotion. For example let`s say the exact match phrase anchor text phrase is "pink fluffy elephants". Would "tiny pink fluffy elephants" also receive a demotion. Thanks, I love your hangouts and find the info very useful.